El Niño will determine whether parts of the United States could see a warmer or wetter winter this year, according to a weather forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But Americans who like to snow don't have to worry. According to forecasters, El Niño could also prove to be an opportunity in terms of possible snowfall in atypical places, fueling more powerful snowstorms in the Northeast.
The phenomenon is predicted to be very strong this winter and to reach significant levels. According to NOAA, this has not been seen in the continental United States since 2015-2016.
El Niño: Where will this change lead?
While no two El Niño winters are the same, this change generally brings wetter and cooler weather to the south, while the north becomes drier and warmer. And that is exactly what is expected this winter.
According to NOAA forecasts, much of the northern United States is likely to experience above-normal temperatures. Parts of the Northwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast have the highest likelihood of above-average temperatures. This will be a dramatic change for parts of the Northwest after last winter ended with cooler than average temperatures for the region.
Another warm winter for some U.S. territories
It will be another warm winter for the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Last winter was one of the warmest on record for both regions, according to NOAA. When forecasters predict above-normal temperatures for an entire season, it doesn't mean there won't be cold weather, just that the cold snaps will be less frequent and shorter in duration.
Outside of an area of near-normal temperatures expected in parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Texas, there is no strong signal in the rest of the United States, according to NOAA. Much of the southern half of the country has an equal chance of being near, above or below normal.
Precipitation
The same cannot be said for precipitation. Much of the southern United States, from the Plains to the Southeast, is expected to see above-normal precipitation this winter. This precipitation could fall as rain, snow, or an icy mix of the two.
More precipitation would be good news for some states struggling with severe drought, including Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Southern areas such as Lubbock, Texas, Little Rock, and Arkansas average less than 8 inches of snowfall per year, but even these minimal amounts increase during an El Niño winter.
This southerly precipitation pattern is one of the hallmarks of an El Niño winter. El Niño has a tendency to shift the jet stream to the south over the United States. Since the jet stream is essentially a river of air through which thunderstorms flow, thunderstorms can then move through the South more frequently, increasing the chance of precipitation.
The mid-Atlantic and far southern New England are also likely to see more precipitation than normal this winter. El Niño typically favors a less active west-to-east storm track across the northern United States, but the Northeast will still be subject to snowfall or easterly winds.
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