Russia also claims to want to establish a lunar outpost by 2030 but, meanwhile, its first attempt to return to the moon in 47 years with the Luna 25 lander ended in a crash.
China has let it be known that it intends to arrive on the Moon with a human crew within this decade and then establish a science base in the early 2030s, and even Europe, which, however, is participating in the Artemis program, is considering a lunar base in the early years of the next decade.
Establishing a colony, or even just a science base, on Mars will be much more difficult. The small Dutch company Mars One claimed to want to send pioneers to Mars by 2032, but the project seems to have finally stalled. Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to send two unmanned cargo ships to Mars, full of equipment and supplies, which will then be followed by four more, again according to plans disclosed by Elon Musk, two of them manned, which are to lay the groundwork for a settlement.
Musk had said he intended to have an Alpha Base on Mars ready for the first settlers by 2028 but has now postponed that until after the Moon landing for which spaceX is a contractor with its Starship under development.
Also related to Mars, NASA's timeline calls for a manned mission to enter orbit around the Red Planet that returns without landing and then sends a mission to land on Martian soil in 2039.
Why should we think about colonizing space?
NASA plans to bring a space station into cislunar orbit and this would lead to having a permanent human presence in extraterrestrial space but there are many practical reasons for a lunar base, which, in fact, is planned.
Private companies could extract resources and raw materials such as gold, platinum, rare metals and helium-3 from below and above the lunar surface. A lunar outpost would also allow scientists to conduct radio astronomy and optical astronomy observations away from Earth's background noise and light pollution, not to mention that it would be the ideal environment to make and test technologies for Mars landings.
The reasons for colonizing Mars would, at least initially, be more romantic, although some visionaries argue that it is a matter of necessity. Both Musk and the late astrophysicist Stephen Hawking have warned that space colonization is necessary for the survival of our species, whose expansion to other celestial bodies will be a real insurance policy in case a large asteroid, nuclear war or environmental disaster such as climate change might make Earth uninhabitable. "When we face similar crises," Hawking said, "we will have to have other places to go, and on Earth we are running out of space."
The first step
The Moon is a logical first step. It takes only a few days to get there, and such proximity allows near real-time communications and remote control of robotic vehicles. Moreover, since the Moon has only one-sixth the gravity of Earth, a spaceport could provide a cheaper starting point for missions to Mars and other planets and bodies farther out in space.
Nevertheless, there is much more interest in colonizing Mars, despite a one-way trip that still takes several months and other major logistical challenges. The Red Planet has, for a long time, occupied a special place in the human imagination. "To me, the moon is as boring as a concrete ball," said NASA astrobiologist Chris McKay. "But we won't have a research base on Mars unless we are first able to learn how to do it on the moon."
Can humans live on Mars?
In theory. Mars has plenty of water, but it seems concentrated in the polar ice caps, atmospheric vapor, barren soil moisture and underground lakes. The challenge is to access it, make it drinkable and usable to make oxygen and hydrogen. Mars' thin atmosphere consists mainly of carbon dioxide, and scientists have designed machines that can remove oxygen atoms from CO2 to produce enough oxygen to sustain astronauts or colonizers.
Food could be grown in protected artificial-light environments with genetically modified plants to make the most of it. We will also need protected habitats. NASA has hired the American company Made in Space to develop microgravity 3D printers that could create some of the resources we would need using local raw materials. MIT researchers are now designing prototype habitats inside golf-ball-shaped domes.
How much would that cost?
A lot. NASA estimates it could put its space station into cislunar orbit by spending about $10 billion, roughly the cost of an aircraft carrier.
As for Mars, any figure is purely hypothetical because the necessary technology has not yet been developed. "Right now," Musk admitted a few years ago, "it takes infinite investment to go to Mars."
That said, one way to reduce the cost of space travel and colonization itself are reusable rockets, on which SpaceX has made great progress, already having several Falcon 9 boosters with 15 or more launches under its belt. In 2017, it successfully introduced the first reusable stage for its Falcon 9 and promises to make its Starship reusable almost completely, which will be used initially as a lunar lander.
What are the environments like?
The Moon has no atmosphere and is not very hospitable. Lunar temperatures during the day reach 121 degrees Celsius while, at night, they drop to minus 120. In comparison, Mars is relatively balmy, touching, depending on the season, 16 degrees during the day and minus 30 at night.
Mars has about 38 percent of Earth's gravity, better than the weightless environment of space, but it is unclear whether and how well the muscles, bones and brains of future colonists will be able to adapt to the lower gravity without resorting to genetic engineering techniques.
Another problem will be cosmic and solar radiation not shielded by either a uniform magnetic field or a dense enough atmosphere. Astronauts going to Mars will receive in space and on the planet's surface 100 times the dose of radiation they receive on Earth, and scientists are still working to try to solve this problem.
What is clear is that a trip to Mars where no special precautions are taken, combined with a prolonged stay, could become a one-way trip. Prolonged exposure to microgravity weakens bones, atrophies muscles and causes various other physiological problems.
Konrad Szocik, a neurologist who has studied the problems of future space colonists, says that despite the optimism of visionaries, it is not at all clear whether humans can survive long term away from Earth. "The human body and mind are adapted to live in the Earth environment," Szocik said. "Consequently, we cannot predict the psychological, physical and biological effects for humans who will live on Mars."
It has to be said that human physiology has shown remarkable adaptability, and future colonists who do not need to return to Earth could adapt to Martian gravity within a few years.
A different breed of humans
Humans who colonize space may come to be different from the humans who remain on Earth. Cameron Smith, an anthropologist at Portland State University, speculated that isolated colonies could develop unique languages and cultures -- and perhaps develop new biological traits -- in as little as 300 years. "Predicting precisely which new traits will be selected and spread or eliminated from the population is very difficult, but it is certain that new cultural patterns will develop, although we cannot say which ones," Smith said.
Ultimately, a population of Martian colonists could evolve into beings adapted to microgravity, high radiation and other conditions. There is also the possibility that they could also genetically engineer new organs to adapt to the challenges of their environment.
Humanity could be greatly transformed. Native Martians could be on average taller and less strong than their terrestrial ancestors but would be adapted to Martian gravity.
The future holds enormous and complex challenges for us, but humans have evolved by facing and overcoming all the challenges that nature has thrown at them; we can probably overcome the challenge of space colonization as well. In the second part of this article we will discuss asteroid colonization, space cities and interstellar travel.
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