Climate Change Amplifies Clear-Air Turbulence: A Study Reveals

Over the last forty years, climate change has exacerbated air turbulence, as revealed by a study in Geophysical Research Letters. This research confirms that Clear-Air Turbulences (CATs), particularly prevalent on the North Atlantic route, have drastically increased in frequency. CATs are a form of turbulence typically found in regions of strong wind shear, sudden wind changes primarily influenced by jet streams and air temperature. They are termed "clear" as they commonly occur at high altitudes under cloud-free skies.

Since 1979, when satellite observations commenced, wind shear at airplane cruising altitude has surged by 15% and is projected to grow an additional 17-29% by 2100. This increase is attributed to climate change and atmospheric feedback loops, triggering a vicious cycle where heat intensifies, leading to substantial air temperature differences and high-altitude wind shear[1][2][3].

These climate models foretell a future where turbulence is increasingly common, with severe turbulence risk potentially doubling or tripling. The study corroborates this upward trend: from 1979 to 2020, CATs over the North Atlantic route have risen by 55% for strong CATs, 37% for moderate CATs, and 17% for weak CATs[1][2].

Despite technological advancements, there are currently no practical solutions to mitigate this turbulence and ensure more stable, safer flights. At present, the researchers' advice centers on ensuring seatbelts are always fastened during flight, maintaining calm, and remembering that turbulence is typically not as severe as it appears[1][2][3].

References: 

[1] Aviation turbulence strengthened as the world warmed 

[2] Aviation turbulence strengthened as the world warmed 

[3] Evidence for Large Increases in Clear‐Air Turbulence Over ...