Published in the journal Nature, the study states that deep water currents surrounding Antarctica may experience a reduction of over 40% within the next three decades. Under a high-emissions scenario, the "overturning circulation" in the ocean depths could decrease by 40% by 2050, leading to repercussions lasting "for centuries to come."
Innovative modeling used in the research suggests a "significant slowdown" in the circulation of the deepest ocean waters as a result of rapid Antarctic ice melt, should global carbon emissions continue to rise. If this trend persists, the deep ocean current appears to be "on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse," according to Matthew England, a climate professor at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and study coordinator.
Annually, trillions of tons of cold, highly saline, and oxygen-rich water sink around Antarctica, generating a deep-water current that flows northward towards the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Increased ice melt causes the Antarctic waters to become less dense and less saline, thereby slowing the deep-ocean circulation.
The collapse of this deep ocean current would lead to stagnation in ocean depths below 4,000 meters. "This would trap nutrients in the deep ocean, reducing the nutrients available to support marine life near the ocean surface," England explained.
Moreover, the study predicts an acceleration in the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets due to Earth's warming. "We are talking about the possible long-term extinction of an iconic water mass," England stated.
Ref: DW; Nature Journal ( https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05762-w )
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