By the first half of the 2030s, it is highly likely that the average global temperatures will exceed +1.5 ºC by the pre-industrial era, which was indicated in the Paris Accords as the point beyond which the impact of climate change on humanity will become increasingly difficult to manage and the effects of the climate crisis will be irreversible. With average temperatures already at +1.1 ºC since the pre-industrial era, it is clear that the current climate commitments are not sufficient.
The IPCC urges us to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieve zero net emissions by 2050. This will give us a 50% chance of limiting global warming to +1.5% C. However, most infrastructure that relies on the extraction or use of fossil fuels would have to be stopped or cancelled immediately to achieve this goal.
While a temporary overshoot of the +1.5 ºC threshold is not catastrophic, the larger the overshoot, the more ecosystems and societies will be exposed to greater and more widespread impacts and risks. The estimated increase in average temperatures between now and the end of the century ranges between +2.1 and +2.9 ºC, depending on the speed with which we achieve zero net emissions.
Fortunately, the solutions to combat climate change have wider benefits than just the climate. For example, the health benefits of better air quality would be equivalent to or better economically than investment in zero-emission transport solutions. Additionally, achieving these goals is financially feasible, as global capital is sufficient to fund them, provided that low-income countries and island nations, which are disproportionately exposed to the most extreme effects of the climate crisis, are able to access the necessary funding.
To contain global warming between 1.5 and 2 ºC, it is necessary to invest 3 to 6 times the 600 billion dollars spent each year for the ecological transition, according to the IPCC. Industrialized countries should achieve zero net emissions as close as possible to 2040, leaving more leeway for developing countries to reach this goal by the middle of the century.
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1 commenti:
Low income island nations are the most affected and least likely to afford any mitigating responses to climate change especially since they have the smallest impact compared to industrialized nations. When will the UN hold India and China accountable for failing to curtail their carbon emissions? Those two countries exceed the emissions of the rest of the world! In addition, if countries continue to cut down the rain forests that will also increase the global temperature as forests absorb carbon dioxide.
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