Could Europe Achieve a Pesticide-Free Status by 2050?

 In order to support the European Green Deal, 144 experts worked together to explore potential ways to make agriculture pesticide-free by 2050. This research was presented at a symposium on Tuesday 21 March in Paris, which was attended by 1,400 people from 64 different countries. Various stakeholders from the realms of agriculture, regulation, policymaking, environment, and food were present to discuss the findings of the three scenarios. Assessing the impacts of each scenario on European food sovereignty and the environment was also part of the project. Additionally, pathways forward for each of the scenarios were suggested by conducting participatory workshops in Italy, Romania, Finland, and France.

Though the consequences of chemical pesticides on the environment and human health have been thoroughly documented, European regulations are having difficulty in achieving the goal of reducing their use by 50% [1] by 2030. This situation stimulated a group of 144 experts, scientists and stakeholders to collaborate for two years to complete a foresight study aimed at devising agricultural and food systems that do not involve chemical pesticides by 2050.

In today's conventional agricultural systems, the utilization of chemical pesticides is essential. However, it is a difficult matter to significantly reduce or even eliminate their use in farming. This foresight study takes this concept further by questioning whether successful crop protection could be accomplished without pesticides by 2050 in Europe and how to shift to this kind of agriculture. This research, achieved through the Priority Research Programme (PPR) and the European Research Alliance, looks for answers to the following questions: what conditions would enable such a transformation? What would be the consequences on production, land use, the trade balance and greenhouse gas emissions? This foresight study provides three scenarios of pesticide-free agriculture in Europe in 2050, along with a transition pathway and examples from four European regions, plus a quantitative evaluation of their effects on Europe.

• Scenario 1: A global and European food market that makes use of digital technologies and plant immunity to provide a pesticide-free product.
• Scenario 2: European-based value chains that focus on plant holobionts, soil and food microbiomes to create a healthy eating plan.
• Scenario 3: Complex and diverse landscapes with regional food value chains for a single health food system.

Cropping systems that rely on no pesticides apply various tactics to avoid the emergence of pests. These consist of crop diversification, breeding of biocontrol agents, selection of appropriate crops and varieties, utilization of digital technology and machinery, and the installation of monitoring tools.

Distinctive effects gauged for each situation

This prospective evaluation was distinctive in that it estimated the effects of each possible situation on farming production, land utilization, greenhouse gas emissions and commerce, determined by the conclusions of a biomass equilibrium model applied to both the European and international levels.

Regarding European agrarian output, the range of calories produced is from -5% to +12%, based on the circumstances. There is a need to strike a balance between decreasing the consumption of animal-based products and preserving grasslands. In terms of the trade balance, scenarios 2 (Healthy microbiomes) and 3 (Embedded landscapes) offer Europe the opportunity to secure its food sovereignty and export its commodities. The three scenarios lead to a decline in greenhouse gas emissions: -8% (scenario 1), -20% (scenario 2), and even up to -37% (scenario 3). Additionally, all three pathways contribute to a boost in the carbon stock in soils and biomass, which can help the agricultural and agri-food sectors achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in scenarios 2 and 3.

For accomplishment, it is essential to have consistent European public policies, the participation of all participants in the value chain, and the distribution of risks among those involved.

For efficient crop protection without chemicals, a combination of strategies must be employed: crop diversification in time and space, biocontrol products and biological inputs, selecting the right varieties, farm equipment and digital tools, and tools to monitor pest activity and the environment. To prevent pests, biological regulation mechanisms should be put in place at the soil, field, and landscape levels.

In order to transition to chemical pesticide-free agriculture, four case studies in Italy, Romania, Finland, and France were conducted to better understand the pathways needed to consider all players in the food system from producers to consumers and related regulatory policies. To facilitate this, a combination of European public policies that reduce pesticide use and other measures such as food policies and economic instruments are necessary. Additionally, stakeholders must share the risks involved with changing their cropping systems and the agricultural and agri-food supply.

The foresight study analyzed various scenarios that can assist policy makers and scientists in determining future research paths to establish an agricultural and agri-food system in Europe that is devoid of chemical pesticides by 2050.

Mora, Berne, Drouet, Le Mouel, and Mernier have discussed the possibility of a pesticide-free agricultural system in Europe by the year 2050. This topic was explored in depth in their publication https://www.calameo.com/read/006800896f25276a7e498?authid=u7GuXsBiCGyN>.