Climate change is posing a significant threat to the world's best coffee-growing regions. If the moderate climate change scenario unfolds, we could witness a loss of half the world's prime coffee-growing land. Specifically, Brazil, currently the world's top coffee producer, could see a reduction of up to 79 percent in its optimal coffee-growing areas.
This revelation is part of a recent Swiss study assessing the potential effects of climate change on three globally traded crops: coffee, cashews, and avocados. These crops, primarily produced by small-scale farmers in the tropics, are of global importance.
Economic Importance of these Crops
Coffee is the most significant among these crops, with expected revenues of US$460 billion in 2022. Avocados and cashews, consumed as nutrient-rich food crops, are expected to generate $13 billion and $6 billion respectively.
The study's critical message is the anticipated climatic changes could lead to significant reductions in land suitable for these crops cultivation. This could have repercussions for both growers and consumers worldwide.
Previous Research Focus
Historically, research on climate change's future impacts has centred on staple crops like wheat, maize, potatoes, and oilseeds. The focus has mainly been on the severe impacts of climate change on temperate ecosystems.
Contrastingly, tropical ecosystems, home to 40 percent of global land area and over 3 billion people, have seen less research. These regions also harbour vast biodiversity and produce many vital crops that sustain their vast human populations.
Extending Knowledge on Coffee, Cashew, and Avocado Crops
The recent study builds on a limited number of existing studies on coffee, cashew, and avocado crops, providing a more comprehensive understanding of their future potential under climate change. This research innovatively considers land and soil parameters, alongside climatic factors, offering a more nuanced view of future impacts, that may drastically alter tropical regions' suitability for certain crops.
Complementing Research on Oil Palm
The study complements recent research into oil palm, a critical tropical crop feeding over 3 billion people despite controversy around deforestation. Climate change is predicted to significantly increase disease incidence and tree mortality in oil palm crops, potentially wiping out much of the crop in the Americas by 2050.
By understanding the potential impacts of climate change on these vital crops, we can devise strategies to safeguard their future, benefiting both growers and consumers globally.
Surprising extent and complexity
Collectively, these studies are beginning to reveal the surprising extent and complexity of the impacts of climate change and associated factors on some of the most grown crops in the tropics. Importantly, the impacts will not be distributed evenly and some regions might even benefit from climate change.
For instance, parts of China, Argentina and the US are likely to become more suitable for coffee growing just as the likes of Brazil and Colombia see their land become less suitable. It is likely that many of these changes are now "locked in" at least for the rest of this century, irrespective of the disappointingly sluggish response of global leaders in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Therefore, it will be necessary for us to adapt to the ongoing changes in the tropics, for example by shifting cultivation of specific crops to different regions where climate impacts will be more benign. However, it seems likely that, whatever mitigation measures are adopted, many tropical crops will become scarcer and hence more expensive in the future.
In terms of coffee, it might even move from a cheap everyday beverage to a prized treat to be sampled on special occasions, rather like a fine wine. 
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