The celestial body designated as 2024 YR4, an asteroid approximately 60 meters in diameter—comparable in scale to a fifteen-story building—presents a significant point of interest for the astronomical community regarding its trajectory in 2032. Discovered on December 27, 2024, the object gained international prominence in February 2025 when initial calculations suggested a 3.1% probability of terrestrial collision, the highest recorded for an object of its size. While subsequent refined trajectory data successfully eliminated the possibility of a direct impact with Earth during its close approach on December 22, 2032, the lunar system remains a potential target.
Potential lunar impact of asteroid 2024 YR4
According to current NASA assessments, there remains a 4.3% probability that 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon. Research conducted in 2025 indicates that such an encounter would release energy equivalent to 6.5 million tons of TNT. This event would represent the most substantial lunar impact documented in modern history, offering a unique opportunity to observe high-energy kinetic processes on a planetary scale.
The prospect of this collision has captivated researchers such as Yifei Jiao, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, Santa Cruz. Jiao and his colleagues characterize this potential event as a rare natural experiment, noting that a predictable impact of a small celestial body could yield data that is both scientifically rich and operationally relevant for planetary defense. Consequently, the research team has prioritized a comprehensive evaluation of all possible outcomes to maximize the potential for scientific discovery.
Beyond the primary impact, recent studies predict that this encounter could produce an extraordinary visual display for terrestrial observers. The interaction is expected to generate thousands of impact flashes and trigger extreme meteor storms. These signatures would not only provide a spectacular sight for skywatchers but also offer vital data regarding the behavior of asteroid fragments and their interaction with the lunar surface and the surrounding space environment.
Predicted impact corridor and geographic alignment.
To evaluate the potential impact, researchers developed sophisticated computer models of the solar system, incorporating the gravitational influence of the Sun, all planets, and the Earth-Moon system. By executing ten thousand simulations with slight variations in the asteroid’s trajectory, the team successfully mapped the most probable collision zones on the lunar surface. Complementing this large-scale mapping, a separate set of high-resolution simulations focused on a 500-second window following the moment of impact to track the behavior of debris and the paths of fragments capable of escaping lunar gravity.
The simulation results indicate that should a collision occur, the asteroid would likely strike along a 3,000-kilometer corridor situated just north of the Tycho crater. From the perspective of an observer in Earth's Northern Hemisphere, this impact site would be located within the lower half of the lunar disk. This specific positioning provides a critical reference point for both professional observatories and amateur astronomers preparing for the 2032 event.
A primary impact of this magnitude is expected to produce a stellar flash with an apparent magnitude between -2.5 and -3, rivaling the brightness of Venus in the night sky. While the total duration of the flash is projected to last between three and five minutes, it would remain reliably detectable against background conditions for at least ten seconds. According to lead author Yifan He of Tsinghua University, the event is currently scheduled for 15:19 UTC, making East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii, and Western North America the most favorable locations for observation, provided the Moon is above the horizon.
Despite the significant brightness of the event, its visibility to the naked eye is contingent upon the illumination of the lunar surface. On the projected date, approximately 70% of the Moon will be illuminated, meaning the flash would only be easily discernible if the asteroid strikes within the lunar night region. Researchers estimate the probability of such an ideal dark-background impact at 2.85%.
However, even if a daylight strike occurs, the event remains detectable via amateur telescopes. Furthermore, the collision would likely eject substantial lunar material, triggering thousands of secondary impact flashes as debris returns to the surface, though these subsequent events would be significantly less intense than the initial contact.
Dynamics of lunar ejecta and terrestrial interaction.
The computational models provided by the research team suggest that a collision between the asteroid 2024 YR4 and the lunar surface would result in the displacement of a staggering volume of material. Specifically, the study estimates that up to 100 million kilograms of lunar regolith and rock could be propelled into space with sufficient velocity to reach Earth's gravitational sphere of influence.
This mass transfer represents a significant orbital event, as the debris would not enter the atmosphere immediately but would instead follow complex trajectories determined by the initial impact energy and the gravitational interplay between the Earth and the Moon.
Yixuan Wu and the research collective have categorized the resulting atmospheric entry of this material as "super meteor storms." These are characterized as extreme meteor showers that far exceed the density and intensity of annual celestial events such as the Perseids or Geminids. Unlike standard meteor showers derived from cometary tails, these storms would consist of primary lunar material.
The simulations indicate a temporal delay in the onset of these storms, predicting that the most intense activity would manifest between two and one hundred days following the primary lunar impact. This window of activity suggests a prolonged period of heightened atmospheric friction events, providing a unique opportunity for global observation and data collection.
Despite the inherent uncertainties regarding the precise probability of the 2024 YR4 lunar impact, the scientific community views the potential event as a transformative moment for planetary science. Wu characterizes the scenario as a "milestone," positing that the Earth-Moon system would effectively serve as a cosmic laboratory. Such an event would provide a rare "natural experiment" to validate current theoretical models regarding asteroid impacts, cratering dynamics, and the subsequent behavior of ejecta in a vacuum.
If the impact occurs as projected, it will offer an unprecedented opportunity to observe the real-time consequences of a medium-scale asteroid strike. This would bridge the gap between small-scale laboratory experiments and the ancient, large-scale craters observed across the solar system.
By transforming the immediate space environment into a "grand stage," researchers would be able to calibrate planetary defense protocols and refine their understanding of how kinetic energy is distributed during hypervelocity collisions. This validation is considered operationally relevant for future asteroid redirection strategies and the long-term protection of the terrestrial biosphere.
The study is published on arXiv.
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